Originator/Sponsor: Primary ITO
Portfolio Managers: Jackie Lynch
Status: Completed August 2025
Lead Agency/Service Provider: Skills Group
Background:
Anecdotal evidence suggests that dairy farmers’ investment in their own professional development, and in the training of their staff, tends to fluctuate with changes in export receipts. When export receipts rise, training becomes more affordable; when receipts fall, affordability decreases.
Similarly, the availability of required vocational education and training (VET) programmes also varies, though often for different reasons, such as course scheduling, achieving the enrolment numbers needed for financial viability, and other logistical factors.
What remains unknown is the extent to which fluctuations in dairy export receipts directly influence participation in VET across the industry.
Purpose:
This project will investigate the hypothesis that changes in export receipts within the dairy industry do influence the provision of VET. It will explore not only whether an influence exists, but also how it is manifested.
The study will examine the relationship between export revenue trends and:
- VET funding levels
- Enrolment patterns
- Programme delivery models
- Workforce development outcomes
It will also consider broader factors that may affect participation, such as government policies on education and immigration, industry growth, regional unemployment rates, and external shocks, such as the impact of Covid-19 on training participation.
Objectives:
- Analyse how variations in export receipts affect funding allocations for VET programmes in the dairy industry.
- Assess the impact of these changes on enrolment numbers, training capacity, and programme sustainability.
- Identify potential risks and opportunities for workforce development arising from export market volatility and other influencing factors.
- Provide actionable recommendations to strengthen the resilience and adaptability of the dairy industry’s VET framework.
How these objectives are achieved:
- Analyse historical and current export receipt data in the dairy sector.
- Identify corresponding trends in VET funding, learner participation, and programme availability.
- Consult with key stakeholders (industry representatives, training providers, and policymakers) to gather insights.
- Assess the wider impact of export-driven changes on skills development and industry growth.
Outcome
The case study report titled The Impact of Export Revenue on Participation in Dairy Sector Vocational Education, found that the dairy industry is a vital contributor to New Zealand’s economy, yet participation in vocational education and training (VET) has fallen dramatically, down 90% from its 2008 peak, raising concerns about future capability.
While enrolments once tracked loosely with milk price, this relationship has broken since 2016; despite strong prices and healthy operating margins, participation has continued to decline. The sharp drop is driven less by export earnings than by structural factors, including immigration reforms that have excluded many international workers from subsidised training, the removal of key funding supports, reduced new entrants to the workforce, and ongoing VET system restructuring that has eroded farmer confidence.
With only a small pool of likely domestic trainees remaining, and emerging skill needs in areas like carbon efficiency and biosecurity, the sector faces an urgent need for coordinated action between industry and education to rebuild trust, modernise training delivery, and secure its future workforce.
The above information was current as at 18 August 2025